Occasionally, the dictates of common sense do not provide an accurate guide in understanding reality. It should not be expected in a period of declining enrollments (or impending declines) that the numbers of faculty would increase. However, this "inverse relationship" trend is underway in engineering education in the US at the present time.

Faculty and Enrollment Trends Since Fall 1998

The graph below shows the recent trends for the numbers of engineering faculty and the full-time enrollments for bachelor's, master's and doctoral students.

Data shown for bachelor's enrollments are reduced to one-fifth of the total to facilitate graphing. The graph above shows data totals for all engineering colleges regardless of the levels of degrees awarded by each.

Bachelor's full-time enrollments reached a maximum in fall 2004 and declined 2.2% in fall 2005; master's full-time enrollments reached a maximum in fall 2002 and declined 13% through fall 2005. Full-time doctoral enrollments, following 58% growth from fall 1997 through fall 2005, are judged to have now reached a maximum. Changes in doctoral enrollment trends (and degree trends) typically follow master's trend changes with a lag time of about three to four years. Further, data from another credible survey show very little growth on full-time doctoral enrollments in fall 2005.

The above graph also clearly shows that the number of engineering faculty members have increased continuously since fall 2001. The average annual increase has been 770 (or 3.9%) and the data provide no evidence of the onset of a change in this trend.

Enrollment and faculty data were also analyzed in terms of enrollments per faculty member as shown in the graph below. 

The data used in the ratios were totals for engineering colleges that reported data for both faculty numbers and enrollments for each of the three degree levels. This procedure excluded data from colleges that reported, for example, data for faculty but not master's enrollments. The bachelor's and master's enrollment declines are defined more clearly by this procedure and the judgment that doctoral enrollments are poised to decline appears to be more plausible.

It should be anticipated that the current growth trend for engineering faculty must end in the near future. Increasing costs are not compatible with declining income. Some evidence exists over the past three decades that there is a significant time lag between changes in enrollment trends and resulting changes in faculty hiring trends. The long-term liability of unsupported increases in the number of faculty cannot be disregarded.

But, What Do Degree Trends Indicate?

It is meaningful that the imbalance shown by comparison of faculty and enrollment data is not observed by comparison of faculty and degree data as presented in the graph below. Only after the previous discussion considering enrollments do the declines in bachelor's and master's degree growth rates in AY2004-05, the last year for which data are available, signal the possibility of a problem associated with faculty growth.

Summary

Bachelor's and master's full-time engineering enrollments continue to decline and doctoral enrollment growth has essentially ended. In spite of this, increases in the number of engineering faculty (an average annual increase of about 770 (3.9%)) since fall 2001 have continued unabated. This contrary relationship between number of faculty and enrollments cannot be readily discerned from the most recent degree data. There is presently no indication of slowing in the growth of the number of engineering faculty.

Acknowledgments

The faculty and enrollment data used in this study originated from the annual surveys of the American Society for Engineering Education. Engineering Trends acknowledges the efforts of this organization in providing credible data and expresses its gratitude for their services to the engineering profession. Persons seeking further information about their surveys and the availability of survey data should visit the ASEE Web site (www.asee.org).

Footnote

Engineering Trends data are compiled mainly from information submitted by universities to the annual surveys of EWC and ASEE. On the very rare occasions where errors in data appear, Engineering Trends corrects the error, if possible, or deletes the data if the error is large enough to alter significantly the trend of the university or the US total.